Can Big 3 go green this time? - 09/22/05 Error processing SSI file
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Thursday, September 22, 2005

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Robin Buckson / The Detroit News

Ford employees attend a speech Wednesday by CEO and Chairman Bill Ford Jr., where he announced that innovation will be the company's focus.

Can Big 3 go green this time?

Critics wonder if automakers can match Japanese commitment to hybrids, alternate fuels.

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Robin Buckson / The Detroit News

Bill Ford Jr.'s company faces challenges in hitting its hybrid production goal by the end of the decade. Automakers have made environmental commitments before, only to break them later on.

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A hybrid in your future?

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Ford Motor Co.'s bid to become a leading producer of hybrids and other environmentally friendly vehicles by 2010 recalls other bold -- and unfulfilled -- pledges by automakers to produce the next generation of fuel-efficient cars and trucks.

The future of Ford and other global automakers may be determined by the race to develop a successor to the internal combustion engine, but recent history has shown that it isn't easy going green.

Like gleaming cars rolling off the assembly line only to break down on the side of the road, one grand plan after another has been abandoned in the face of technological snags, consumer shifts and escalating development costs.

Some automakers predicted hydrogen fuel cell-powered cars would be mass-produced as early as 2004, and no later than 2010. That now seems optimistic at best.

In the 1990s, General Motors Corp. sank millions into its EV1 electric cars that later died on the vine. And in 2003, Ford reneged on a pledge to improve the fuel efficiency of its SUVs by 25 percent.

But even critics say Ford's new plan might be different.

Hybrid gas-electric cars are proving to be a viable alternative at a time of high gas prices and a growing backlash against gas guzzlers.

"There's a broad recognition that fuel economy is no longer just a matter of corporate responsibility," said Roland Hwang, senior policy analyst for the Natural Resources Defense Council in San Francisco. "It's a matter of corporate competence to survive in this world now."

Detroit automakers are seeing sales decline for their large SUVs, while Japanese rivals win heaps of goodwill by launching hybrid-powered cars and trucks.

"We see a time when everything will have to be a hybrid," said Jim Press, president of Toyota Motor Sales USA. When he and other Toyota executives refer to hybrids, they mean not only gas-electric vehicles but any vehicles, such as fuel-cell cars, that use electric power.

Ford cast its new hybrid strategy as part of an effort to revamp its image and set itself apart at a time when it is losing money in North America and preparing to launch its second restructuring since 2002.

"Innovation -- in safety, in the environment, in design, and in technological solutions to problems -- is going to be reclaimed as our natural birthright," said Bill Ford Jr., the company's chairman and CEO, at the automaker's scientific research laboratory in Dearborn.

Under the plan first reported Wednesday in The Detroit News, Ford says it will build at least 250,000 hybrid vehicles a year by 2010 and offer a gas-electric version of more than half its models.

As part of an expansion of research into other alternative fuel programs, Ford also plans to offer four vehicles for 2006 that run on a mix of corn-based ethanol and gasoline. In addition, it will launch a pilot program next year to offset greenhouse gases emitted in the production of its hybrid vehicles.

Ford faces challenges in hitting its hybrid production goal by decade's end. The company now depends on overseas suppliers for key pieces of its Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner hybrid models, and needs to find U.S. suppliers that can provide the technology. Ford also has to find a way to turn a profit on hybrid vehicles, which are costlier to build .

Yet Ford's hybrid program may not be as ambitious as it sounds, since the goal is only to have the capacity to build at least 250,000 hybrids a year by 2010.

"It doesn't mean they're committing to a certain production volume for hybrid vehicles," said Lindsay Brooke, a senior analyst at CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills.

Ford, the first U.S. automaker to offer a hybrid, will focus its hybrid efforts on front-wheel-drive vehicles, which excludes its gas-thirsty F-Series pickups and full-size SUVs. It is also considering putting the technology into vehicles under its Volvo, Jaguar and Land Rover brands.

Phil Martens, Ford's product development chief, said the effort may expand in coming years.

"I do believe that eventually in the United States we're going to have to find a way to make our trucks more fuel-efficient," he said.

Hybrids now account for 1 percent of U.S. auto sales, but the niche is expected to expand dramatically as more automakers, including GM, DaimlerChrysler, Nissan Motor Co. and Porsche offer hybrid models. Last week in Frankfurt, Toyota executives said they expected eventually to offer a hybrid version of nearly every vehicle in their lineup.

But automakers have made environmental commitments before, only to break them later on.

At the 2003 Detroit auto show, GM pledged to be the first automaker to sell hybrids in large volumes. GM outlined plans to bring 12 hybrid models to market, including pickups, full-size sport utilities and the Chevy Malibu. But less than a year into the plan, GM changed course, delaying one hybrid system until it found partners to share the cost.

In 2000, Ford promised to raise the fuel economy of its SUV fleet by 25 percent over five years. By 2003, the company had backed off its commitment in the face of growing business problems. Critics also point to the 1990s, when all three Detroit automakers worked with the Clinton administration on the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles. The automakers promised to develop prototypes for 80-mpg "supercars" by 2000. The cars were supposed to be cost-effective and near production quality. But costs never came down enough to bring them to market. When the Bush administration took office in 2001, the supercar effort died.

That led to a new emphasis on hydrogen-powered fuel cells as the answer to environmental issues. The most optimistic projections are for the first mass-produced fuel-cell cars to be on the road by 2010.

But many experts, citing continuing technical problems, say it could be 2050 before Americans see fuel-cell cars in large numbers.

Despite past disappointments, some environmental groups said they expect Ford to keep its word.

"Ford's move to increase hybrid production is a step in the right direction, and it places hybrids front and center in the future of the auto industry," said Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's global warming division. "I think they've learned their lesson (from broken promises in the past), and we take them at their word."

The recent run-up in gasoline prices -- following Hurricane Katrina and two years of war in Iraq that put a spotlight on the nation's dependence on foreign oil -- means that consumers are focused on fuel economy in a way they haven't been since the early 1980s.

If Ford sticks to its plan, it will surpass hybrid pioneer Honda in terms of models sold in the United States. Honda sold the first hybrid in the United States, the tiny Insight coupe, in 1999. It brought out hybrid versions of its Civic small car in 2002 and Accord sedan last year. Even with three models, Honda sells fewer than 50,000 hybrids a year.

Spokesman Chris Naughton said Honda is committed to a fourth hybrid model, but no decisions have been made about which vehicle or how soon it will come out.

"We very much wanted to bring the hybrid drivetrain to the mainstream," Naughton said. "We want to apply it to our best-selling vehicles."

You can reach Brett Clanton at (313) 222-2612 or bclanton@detnews.com.


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