Sunday, October 2, 2005

Mayor's race more recall election than head-to-head fight

By Nolan Finley / The Detroit News

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Kwame Kilpatrick's re-election campaign is short on money and out of gas.

The Detroit mayor made the early mistake of assuming the race was between himself and challenger Freman Hendrix. It never was.

This is a recall election, a referendum on Kwame Kilpatrick, his character and his performance. Hendrix could be anybody.

So far, people aren't voting for Freman Hendrix. They're voting against Kilpatrick.

And so many voted against him in the August primary, and so many now say they will vote against him on Nov. 8, that the money that an incumbent mayor ought to expect to flow into his coffers from favor mongers has dried up.

Kilpatrick has shockingly little cash on hand.

But that could change, and change fast.

New fund-raising muscle

The mayor last week tapped Jim Nicholson, chairman of PVS Chemicals in Detroit and one of the town's top rainmakers, to lead his fund-raising efforts.

Nicholson reportedly is charged with raising $1 million by Election Day. That's a big nut, but if anyone can cover it, Nicholson can. He's a leading fund-raiser for the national Republican Party.

Both Kilpatrick and Hendrix appeared before the Detroit Renaissance board last week, and those who were there say Kilpatrick not only carried the day, he loosened some wallets.

The campaign thinks it needs to spend $300,000 a week in the last month of the race to overcome Hendrix's lead, which polls say is near 18 percentage points, but is more likely between 10 and 14.

But it's not just the money; it's how the money is spent.

Strategy is flawed

So far, Kilpatrick has pursued a strategy of defining Hendrix. He's wishy-washy, he's the darling of the suburbs, he's had his chance in the mayor's office and flubbed it, and so on.

That isn't working. And it isn't working because, as noted, this race has so little to do with Hendrix.

The challenger seems to understand that. He's launched a two-week, $250,000 ad blitz to better introduce himself to Detroit voters and to give them a reason to vote for him, instead of just against Kilpatrick.

Hendrix may not have Kilpatrick's charisma, but he is likeable enough for voters to feel comfortable choosing him over a candidate they're not sure they trust.

The mayor doesn't have the money to counter that ad campaign just yet. He'll have it soon.

And when he gets it, he'd better also get that he has to paint a better picture of Kwame Kilpatrick.

Voters and donors need to see that he's sincere when he says he won't repeat his first-term mistakes.

They also need to know that he has a plan for making his second term all about serving the public, and not serving himself and his cronies.

If he doesn't do that, if the next round of polls push Hendrix above the 55 percent mark as many expect, no amount of campaign money will save Kilpatrick's campaign.

Nolan Finley is The News' editorial page editor. Reach him at nfinley@detnews.com or (313) 222-2064. Watch Nolan Finley at 8:30 p.m. Fridays on Am I Right on Detroit Public Television, Ch. 56.