Monday, April 18, 2005

Energy concerns underscore need for cost effective technology

By John McCormick / Autos Insider

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It was hardly a surprise that my column last week on taking a realistic view of gas prices raised a storm of email. Interestingly, most correspondents seemed to agree with my point that in terms of a typical household budget, the figure spent on gas, even at today's prices, is still reasonable.

A few of you made the erroneous assumption that this conclusion means that I wholeheartedly support America's love affair with large trucks. In fact, I don't feel much sympathy for SUV owners now complaining about the price of fuel, especially if the buyer was stretching their budget to buy the vehicle in the first place. That consumer is living with the consequences of believing that Americans have a right to unrealistically low gas prices for eternity.

What I do believe is that we should encourage all manufacturers, from Detroit to Tokyo, to speed the introduction of cost effective fuel saving technology for their larger vehicles. Displacement on demand engine systems, six-speed transmissions, maybe even advanced, clean diesel powertrains (if exhaust after-treatment costs can be mitigated) are the answers to making the next generation mid- and full-size SUVs more acceptable, to the individual pocket book and to society in general.

Those pundits who say that higher gas prices mean the death of big trucks should take note of the following. I just checked with Nissan, a company on the up and up in the US, and it says its truck sales - especially full size vehicles like the Titan pick-up and Armada and Infiniti QX56 SUVs - are helping to drive its growth. If SUV buyers are being put off by gas prices, then Nissan hasn't noticed it.

What's more, I would argue that the sales declines being experienced by certain larger SUV models - the Chevrolet Suburban, Ford Expedition and Toyota Sequoia for example - have more to do with the fact that the vehicles concerned are old and tired, rather than the public losing interest in the breed. (On this note, I wonder why so many critics focus their attacks on Detroit automakers, as if they are the only ones promoting large trucks and SUVs. Asian automakers are heavily involved in this market sector; Toyota, for example, has no less than five SUVs.)

What buyers do want is new, modern designs with more advanced engineering and most importantly, a reason to rationalize the purchase in an era of rising fuel costs. For automakers that means ramping up development of technologies that can push average fuel consumption out of the low teens towards the 20mpg mark.

This discussion leads naturally to the subject of hybrids. These gasoline engine/electric motor powered vehicles have taken an interesting turn lately with the launch of the Lexus RX400h, the world's first hybrid performance truck. It's a vehicle I've just been driving (in prototype form) and my impression is mixed. Like the Prius hybrid, the 400h is a brilliant display of engineering prowess from Toyota. But its driving characteristics still leave a good deal to be desired; witness the strange, uneven power delivery at cruise speeds and non-linear braking response.

Undeniably, the 400h is fast for a hybrid, but this quality raises an intriguing question: how will Prius owners, a notoriously pious bunch, take this 'distortion' of their 'save the planet' technology?

On the subject of fuel consumption, the RX400h is like the Prius; it falls well short of its EPA figures in real world usage. On the other hand, as Toyota's leading environmental engineer, Dave Hermance, sagely points out, the fuel saving ability of a hybrid becomes more evident over a longer time period.

Overall, the public is still amazingly ignorant about hybrids. I would wager the average person hasn't the foggiest idea of what actually makes a hybrid run. Nor do they seem to realize that because of its price premium, a hybrid is a dubious economic proposition, if the goal is to save money through superior fuel consumption. However there is no denying that a hybrid vehicle is superior to a conventional automobile in terms of exhaust emissions.

For those prepared to take the longer term view on energy, the fundamental issue here goes well beyond hybrids and diesels. The real concern is that these technologies will barely put a dent in the world's appetite for gasoline, once developing countries such as China, India and others begin to buy cars in high volume. The answer may well be the development of hydrogen-fuelled vehicles, an area that Detroit automakers, in dramatic and praiseworthy contrast to their perceived 'head in the sand' attitude, are taking a leading role.

John McCormick is a columnist for Autos Insider and can be reached at jmccormick@detnews.com