Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference

Candidates eager to run hard campaign in Michigan

Nine presidential hopefuls travel to Mackinac Island

Charlie Cain and Gordon Trowbridge / The Detroit News

A storm of competing forces will gather over Mackinac Island this weekend when Michigan Republicans gather there -- and not just the nine presidential candidates who will be there to compete for support.

State Republicans' biannual leadership conference on the island, kicking off today, has drawn the GOP's presidential contenders, from top tier to also-ran.

That, and a decision by Democratic candidates to boycott Michigan for line-jumping in scheduling a January primary, gives Republicans hope they can put Michigan into play come November 2008, despite a string of recent Democratic wins in presidential, Senate and gubernatorial races.

But Craig Ruff, senior fellow at Public Sector Consultants, a nonpartisan Lansing think tank, said, "It would be a real stretch to place Michigan in the competitive column come November of next year."

Still, GOP campaigns seem eager to run hard in Michigan, especially since the decision was made to hold the state presidential primary on Jan. 15. Already, candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain have spent lots of time raising money and are seeking support here; Rudy Giuliani's campaign spent most of the past week interviewing applicants for campaign positions here. The campaign announced this week that it has hired Lynn Aronoff, an aide to Dick DeVos' campaign for governor last year and a former aide to Gov. John Engler, as its Michigan political director.

State GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis says an expected record crowd of more than 3,000 is a sign not only of an energetic primary campaign, but of hopes for capturing the state in the general election.

"This is a huge event, the first time other than at debates where all the key candidates will be in one place," he said. "It's a unique opportunity for Michigan Republicans to actually talk to these people in an intimate setting. And the candidates will all get the chance to make their pitch on where they stand."

Also sure to draw attention to the Republican field: An Oct. 9 nationally televised debate in Dearborn. Romney on Wednesday became the second candidate to accept an invitation to the debate; Thompson already had signed on.

A number of Republicans say they've gotten their biggest boost from Democrats. The Jan. 15 primary violates the scheduling rules of both national parties. But while Republicans have largely bypassed a serious fight with their national party on the schedule, Democrats in approved early-voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire got their party's candidates to promise not to campaign here or in Florida, another rule-breaker state.

One big reason: Republican National Committee rules threaten to strip Michigan and Florida of half their national convention delegates next summer, a less painful penalty than the total loss of delegates Democrats have imposed on Florida and threaten to impose on Michigan.

"There isn't that pressure from the early states (on the Republican side)," said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager. "The reason, I think, is that the RNC has been really clear on the rules since early on. While Michigan, Florida and South Carolina may lose delegates, those are large states and there are still delegates at stake."

Fergus Cullen, chairman of the New Hampshire GOP, said his state party has no interest in penalizing Republican candidates for campaigning in Michigan, because New Hampshire still maintains its hold on the nation's first primary. No Republican presidential candidate has won in Michigan since 1988.

"For the next four months, the Republican candidates will be coming here constantly, talking about the issues important to Michigan," said Bill Ballenger, a former Republican legislator who publishes a political newsletter. "That is a definite plus for Republicans -- maybe the only thing Republicans have going that is really good for them."

In fact, fallout from the GOP's recent losing streak in high-profile elections could hurt the party's hopes this time. Michigan's male representative on the Republican National Committee, Chuck Yob, a McCain supporter, has had a testy fight with Anuzis and other party leaders, claiming they're more focused on personal agendas than party victory. This week, state Attorney General Mike Cox, another target of Yob's, quit as McCain's Michigan campaign chairman.

Such disputes may be invisible to most voters. But Ruff said they can seriously damage the ability to win elections.

"Sometimes, if members of a minority party feel real down in the dumps, they tend to self-cannibalize," said Ruff.