Come back for live coverage 4-6pm

GOP face-off in Dearborn

Economy is focus; Thompson makes debate debut

Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit News Washington Bureau

DEARBORN -- For once, Michigan is at the center of the national economic story -- hosting this afternoon's Republican presidential debate on business and economic issues, where nine GOP candidates will outline their plans on taxes, spending and jobs to Michigan voters eager for words of hope for a rebound.

Nationally, the story may well be the showing of actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, appearing in his first debate since entering the race. The debate will start at 4 p.m. at the Ford Community & Performing Arts center in Dearborn.

But in Metro Detroit, voters may pay more attention to the talk about taxes and government spending -- an increasingly heated issue of contention between top GOP contenders Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney in the last week. It would be a significant departure from the campaign's current course for any of the front-runners to lay out specific plans to aid Michigan's battered auto industry -- even though the Jan. 15 primary places Michigan at a crucial spot in the Republican nominating calendar, right after traditional kickoff states Iowa and New Hampshire.

Political analyst Denise DeCook suggests the first candidate to get to the heart of Michigan's struggles may hold an advantage here, where the race looks like a wide-open four-way contest.

"Iowa and New Hampshire have for years been able to press candidates to be very specific about the issues important to them," said DeCook of Marketing Resource Group, a Lansing-based Republican consulting firm. "I don't think it's asking too much of any presidential candidate to be specific about what's helpful to Michigan."

National political analyst Charlie Cook, editor of Washington, D.C.'s "Cook Political Report," said location may have less impact on the debate's content than some in Michigan hope. Still, Cook said, debating in the Rust Belt Midwest "does give it a twist, and one that applies not just to Michigan but to Ohio" and other neighboring states that have been hemorrhaging factory jobs.

Into that arena come front-runners Giuliani and Romney; popular newcomer Thompson; 2000 Michigan primary winner John McCain, trying to prove he can come back from a difficult spring and summer; and five lesser-known candidates looking to break into the top tier of a wide-open GOP field.

Tax hikes will be discussed

Conversations with analysts, campaign officials, the candidates' supporters and their own public statements make it clear one aspect of Michigan's story will get plenty of attention: the recent budget agreement in Lansing that included tax hikes, giving Republicans plenty of material with which to portray Democrats as tax-happy spenders.

"If you're a presidential candidate stepping in here, it's almost like you have a menu of options for what you can talk about in terms of Republican ideology," DeCook said.

"When you've got a budget deficit staring you in the face, you can do what Lansing has done, which is put in a tax increase," said Steve Forbes, a former GOP candidate who now backs Giuliani. "Or you can do what Rudy Giuliani did, and that is to reduce the tax burden, get real restraints in spending and let new jobs come in."

In other Michigan appearances, Giuliani has compared Michigan's situation with that of New York City when he became mayor in 1994. By cutting taxes and business regulation, Giuliani says, he erased a deficit even bigger than that now facing Michigan and added thousands of new jobs.

But that record has come under attack from Romney, the Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor who has led in many polls in early-voting states but trails Giuliani nationally. Last week, Romney criticized Giuliani's record on taxes and spending at a New Hampshire campaign stop; within an hour, Giuliani's campaign had organized a conference call for reporters with former Massachusetts Gov. Paul Cellucci, who called Romney "desperate."

Romney kept up the attacks with a series of research papers and tartly worded notes to journalists, all trying to portray Giuliani's talk of fiscal conservatism as a sham.

Expect Romney to hit that theme again today.

"The governor is not willing to rest on our laurels and say, 'OK, we've cut taxes enough,' " said Romney campaign policy aide James Bognett.

Thompson, McCain face test

Two possible beneficiaries of the Romney-Giuliani battle: Thompson and McCain, each facing a crucial test.

Thompson, who entered the race a month ago, continues to poll well among the leaders in early states and locally, but so far has failed to wow analysts with his performance on the campaign trail, making misstatements and poorly received speeches.

"Thompson's under a lot of pressure to start performing well, because he hasn't so far. I don't know of anybody who's impressed with what he's done," Cook said.

For McCain, who won Michigan's 2000 presidential primary and had hoped for residual support from that campaign, the challenge is different: The Arizona senator is generally regarded as a good debater and campaigner, but disappointing financial performance has led to staff cuts, defections from top supporters and aides and loss of the front-runner position.

McCain's campaign touted his performance in the straw poll at last month's Republican conference on Mackinac Island, and aides promise a significant new message in a speech he'll deliver this morning, at a breakfast gathering of the Detroit Economic Club.

"He needs to do well in the debate and well in Michigan," said McCain supporter and Michigan business executive Jim Nicholson, a former top fundraiser for President Bush. "And I expect him to do both."

Poll trailers may attract Mich.

It may be the second-tier candidates who appeal most specifically to Michigan voters. Other than Thompson, none of the top four has talked much about international trade and the loss of manufacturing jobs overseas. But Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, California Rep. Duncan Hunter and Texas Rep. Ron Paul all have said they would limit international trade or crack down on improper trade practices by other nations.

Paul is likely to make mention of his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he says is a prelude to dissolving the national borders with Canada and Mexico. And California Rep. Tom Tancredo has based his economic appeal on shutting down illegal immigration, which he says robs Americans of jobs.

For those trailing in the polls and for the front-runners, DeCook said, the key will be convincing Michigan voters that they understand the state's troubles.

"It's been since 1988 that a Republican presidential candidate has carried Michigan," she said. "If these candidates cannot talk about hope for the future of Michigan, we're going to have another presidential outcome like all the others."