DECISION 2008: POLL

Giuliani gaining in Michigan

GOP candidate jumps ahead of Romney; Clinton widens gap among Democrats.

Mark Hornbeck and Charlie Cain / Detroit News Lansing Bureau

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has taken a slight lead in Michigan in his horserace against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination among likely GOP voters.

Meanwhile, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has widened her already substantial lead here for the Democratic nomination.

According to a new Detroit News/WXYZ-TV statewide survey, Giuliani is favored by 28 percent of Republicans -- slightly better than the 25 percent support for Romney, a Michigan native whose father was the state's governor in the 1960s. Both former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Arizona Sen. John McCain continue to lag behind. Thompson is still third, now at 13 percent, followed by McCain, at 12 percent.

That's not good news for either, but it's particularly troublesome for McCain, who won Michigan's 2000 presidential primary, and had hoped to establish a beach head here.

Gary DeMuellenare, a retired city appraiser from Detroit who took part in the survey, is among the Giuliani faithful.

"He has proven managerial ability, a solid track record during the 9-11 crisis," he said. "The rest of them can't say that. Just sitting in a mayor's office or a governor's office is not enough."

Lori Ann Aleo of Fraser also likes Giuliani -- but prefers Romney.

"I like his personality. He's simply the best candidate," Aleo said. "It helps that he's a Michigan native."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was a blip -- just 3 percent -- in the News/WXYZ poll published Sept. 1. But he's tripled his support since then. And while he's still way behind the leaders, his progress is significant.

An ordained Baptist minister, Huckabee has been running strong in Iowa polls, where he is second behind Romney. Huckabee has inherited some supporters of Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who quit the presidential race and endorsed McCain. Furthermore, Huckabee's moderate stances on economic issues, and his social conservatism, may find an audience in Michigan.

"Huckabee is a big player in determining who wins the Michigan primary," said pollster Ed Sarpolus, who noted that since his August poll Huckabee has gained ground at the expense of McCain and Thompson.

Whether Michiganians will have the chance to vote those preferences remains uncertain. The Legislature approved a Jan. 15 date for the primary, but an Ingham County circuit judge ruled the election unconstitutional because the law stipulated that primary voter lists were to be provided exclusively to the two political parties. The state has appealed that ruling and a hearing on the issue was held before a three-judge Michigan Court of Appeals panel Thursday.

The News/WXYZ-TV survey was conducted by the polling firm EPIC-MRA among 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters Nov. 7-13. Its error margin is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The Democratic presidential race here is growing increasingly lopsided.

Clinton is breaking away from the Democratic field -- even though she and the other Democratic candidates refuse to campaign here, because the state ran afoul of national party rules by scheduling its primary ahead of other states.

She now is favored by 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan, up from 40 percent in the Sept. 1 survey. Second-place candidate Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who had 21 percent of the vote in late summer, now stands at a very distant 18 percent. And former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is stuck in the mid teens despite support from union leaders. Edwards and Obama had their names removed from the potential Michigan ballot.

Sarpolus said Clinton "is in a very strong position. She's got phenomenal support among Michigan women."

According to the survey, 60 percent of female voters prefer Clinton with Obama a distant second at 18 percent. Among men, however, Clinton's support drops to 32 percent, still tops in the field. Edwards has 21 percent support while Obama received support from 19 percent of the men.

Barbara Goryca, a Dearborn Heights activist with the League of Women Voters, said she hopes the Democrats unite behind someone who can win the general election.

"Right now, (Clinton) is the one," said Goryca, who participated in the poll.

"Unless something unexpected comes up, I'm positive she could win. Barack might not have enough experience and Edwards would be my second choice."

Dorothy Beaker, a Trenton grandmother of five, agreed.

"I think Clinton has good ideas and I don't support her just because she's a woman. I think she knows what's going on, has the experience and it's not like she just decided to jump in to the first woman," Beaker said.

Former Michigan Gov. James Blanchard, who is a co-chair of Clinton's campaign in Michigan, said he was encouraged by the poll results.

"I still think the race for president is fluid, but I would rather have my candidate gaining ground than losing ground," he said.

"But we have a long way to go to carry Michigan, get the nomination and win the White House. We're going to be working real hard at it."

Some have said union leaders, many of whom favor Edwards, would prefer to have a party caucus vote rather than a primary, because that format -- which only involves about 140,000 Democratic activists -- would give their candidate a better chance to capture the state.

But the poll shows Edwards fares only slightly better among union households, where Clinton is favored by 41 percent, Edwards is at 21 percent and Obama at 17 percent. In non-union households, Clinton is favored by 53 percent compared to 18 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Edwards.

You can reach Mark Hornbeck at (313) 222-2470 or mhornbeck@detnews.com.