Mich. may play key role in GOP race

Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit News Washington Bureau

With the date and the field now set, and just six weeks remaining until election day, Michigan has an opportunity to play a crucial role in the Republican presidential nominating process.

But it's largely irrelevant in the Democratic race.

The Jan. 15 primary amounts to a partial victory for Michigan political elites, who sought to put the state in the same class as traditional kickoff states New Hampshire and Iowa in the 2008 White House sweepstakes. With Democrats choosing not to campaign here, and four of their candidates not even on the ballot, Michigan is unlikely to have any impact on the competitive race among Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

But the even more tightly bunched GOP contenders could wage a key contest of their campaign here, political analysts say. Michigan's role may largely depend on results in Iowa and New Hampshire, which vote in the two weeks before Michigan.

Mich. could shake up race

The Jan. 15 contest may represent a chance for Michigan native Mitt Romney to cement his front-runner status -- or a crucial recovery point if he stumbles in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. It could represent a vital chance for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani to derail Romney's momentum. Or Michigan could be the best hope for Arizona Sen. John McCain -- who won the 2000 Michigan primary -- to resurrect a campaign once left for dead.

"On the Republican side, by moving up, Michigan has succeeded in making itself more relevant in the process," said Nathan Gonzalez of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter.

"But it's impossible to handicap what happens without knowing what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire before we even get to Michigan."

If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, where he now leads, the former Massachusetts governor would come to his home state poised to go 3-for-3: a formidable start to his campaign. Until recently, Giuliani had largely ignored Iowa and New Hampshire, focusing on Florida -- which votes Jan. 29 -- and later states. But he has campaigned extensively in New Hampshire, meaning contests there on Jan. 8 and in Michigan a week later could give him two vital chances to damage Romney. In a Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll this month, Giuliani had a slight lead.

Mich. status could lessen

But some scenarios in Iowa and New Hampshire -- say, a Mike Huckabee upset of Romney in Iowa -- could make Michigan much less important, said Denise DeCook, an analyst with Marketing Resource Group, a Republican consulting firm in Lansing. If Huckabee's recent surge continues, South Carolina, where the former Arkansas governor stands to do well Jan. 26, could suck attention from Michigan.

And the on-and-off nature of the Michigan contest -- two state court rulings blocking the primary, a third letting it go forward and more than a week of confusion about whether the Legislature would restore the missing Democrats to the ballot -- have hurt.

"I don't think a lot of people have tuned in to this," DeCook said. "All they've heard is the air of confusion -- will we have a primary or won't we."

It's short list of Democrats

For Democrats, meanwhile, Michigan is almost an afterthought -- at least during the 2008 primary season.

Asked if Michigan will have any significance in the Democratic race, Gonzalez said simply, "I'm trying to think of something, but no."

It's not the outcome for which U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, D-Detroit, had hoped. Just four candidates, and only Clinton among the top contenders, will appear on the Michigan ballot. And none of the significant candidates will campaign here because Michigan broke national Democratic Party rules by jumping ahead of other states. But Levin contends that the move to Jan. 15 has at least partially succeeded in challenging the Iowa-New Hampshire monopoly.

"It's not exactly in the way we thought it would be, and on the Democratic side it's not to the same degree," he said. "But I think we've shaken up the status quo."

While Democratic Party rule-makers are expected on Saturday to punish Michigan by barring its delegation from the 2008 convention for violating calendar rules, Levin said he thinks the delegates will be seated -- an opinion shared by most observers.

"That will be a powerful statement to other states that Iowa and New Hampshire could not successfully exert their power," Levin said. If so, he predicted, the landscape for 2012 will be far different: Either a system will emerge that breaks the Iowa-New Hampshire stranglehold, he said, or other states will join in challenging the two traditional kickoff states.

You can reach Gordon Trowbridge at (202) 662-8738 or gtrowbridge@detnews.com.