Michigan's unemployment crisis

Wide-ranging jobless rates reflect volatility of the times

Brian J. O'Connor / Detroit News Financial Editor

The monthly unemployment statistics compiled by the U.S. and state governments reveal only a corner of the jobless picture in Michigan.

Some of the state's communities and counties report unemployment rates well below the national average of 9.8 percent, seemingly insulated -- at times-- from the economic carnage. But other areas are staggering under rates that are triple the national average and more than twice the state level of 15.3 percent.

Among the nearly 80 Michigan cities whose September jobless rates were revealed Thursday, Northville Township posted the lowest jobless rate, 3.9 percent; neighboring Plymouth Township stood at 5.1.

But Highland Park and Pontiac, within commuting distance of the affluent townships, were tied in September for the state's worst at 35.2 percent, followed by Detroit at 27.9, Flint at 26.3 and Port Huron at 25.7.

Across-the-board hits

Among Michigan's counties, there are two things that all 83 share: They all have more unemployed residents this year, and all are touched in some way by the failing auto industry.

"Early in the recession, it looked like certain parts of the state were avoiding the pain," says Jim Rhein, an economic analyst with the state Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth. "You'd see a real disparity between the I-75 corridor and the western part of the state.

"But that's all out the window now. It just hit everyone across the board."

At 15.3 percent, the statewide jobless rate is the nation's worst, with 740,000 people looking for work.

As bad as that is, 22 of the state's 83 counties are enduring even higher jobless rates.

Southeastern Michigan makes the list, with Wayne, Oakland and Macomb putting up rates of 15.6 percent to 18.3 percent.

But at least a dozen small counties are among the most suffering too, in places you wouldn't associate with the wave of giant factory closings that has scarred Detroit, Flint and the state's other big auto towns. Alcona, Montmorency and Oscoda counties all exceed the state average, but with fewer than 800 workers out of a job, compared with almost 74,000 in Macomb, more than 93,000 in Oakland and nearly 159,000 in Wayne.

In the numbing world of unemployment numbers, jobless rates in tiny Michigan counties can swing from good news to bad news in a matter of months or even days, depending on the fate of one employer, one small plant or even the rate of the summer rainfall.

"In smaller counties, when you have labor force of 2,000 or 3,000, you get a lot more volatility," Rhein says. "What may seem like a small event here can be a big deal there.

"Even if it's just 150 jobs, it's like a Big Three plant closing in Detroit. It has the same kind of devastation."

Tiny Baraga tops list

In many cases, the number of jobless workers in any one southeastern Michigan county is 100 times larger than the entire labor force of smaller western or upstate counties, Rhein notes.

Take Baraga County, covering just over 1,000 square miles and with just under 9,000 residents at the base of the Upper Peninsula's Keweenaw Peninsula. Baraga bears the worst unemployment rate in the state -- a whopping 24.3 percent -- but with only 1,093 people out of work.

While General Motors Co. wraps up a round of white-collar job cuts that will claim 6,000 workers, Baraga's total labor force amounts to 4,498 workers.

Small and rural counties have missed out on some of the few bright spots in the state economy, notes Sophia Koropeckyj, managing director of MoodysEconomy.com.

While health care, education, financial services and business and professional services have gained -- or at least not fallen as far as manufacturing and construction -- small counties don't attract those businesses.

"The one industry that's been growing is education and health care, and these rural areas aren't going to have much of that," Koropeckyj says.

Most counties with low unemployment rates this month aren't immune to seeing them go up as the seasons change. Mackinac, Isabella, Cheboygan and Leelanau all have rates of less than 10 percent -- but all depend heavily on lakeside tourism or traffic at tribal casinos.

Mackinac, in fact, is a good bet to soon go from best jobless rate in the state -- 6.1 percent for September -- to worst, wresting the No. 1 unemployment ranking away from Baraga. Once the weather turns and vacationers head home, the tourist hot spot typically sees unemployment soar.

Last March, for example, Mackinac posted a 28 percent unemployment rate, with just 1,476 people out of work.

Among Rust Belt states, Michigan's industrial neighbors are hurt but still faring better. A reconcentration of the auto industry back to Michigan boosted employment in the 1990s, but is now simply concentrating the job loss.

"It's really striking to see that the southern part of Michigan is very much the epicenter," Koropeckyj says.

boconnor@detnews.com (313) 222-2145