Lynn Henning

Tigers' pitching troubles cloud season prediction

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- A friend asked the other day how many games the Tigers would win in 2009.

My response, which wasn't terribly precise, was 78 on the low end, 88 maximum.

That's the feeling six weeks into a camp that has been a manic-depressive exercise in baseball's ups and downs.

Healthy pitchers, who appeared to be rounding into shape early, have been fewer and fewer as the weeks have worn on, but could yet make the Tigers contenders. Setbacks of the kind that have been piling up in recent days will make 2009 look more like 2008.

The dark side could be detected in manager Jim Leyland's voice as he sat in the dugout ahead of Friday's 3-2 loss to the Braves.

"We've got major issues," Leyland said. "There's a lot of confusion right now with our pitching staff."

Most of the flux surrounds the starters.

Jeremy Bonderman still is in a comeback phase from his 2008 surgery. Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis haven't reassured anyone they can contribute.

A week before his team heads north to open the season at Toronto on April 6, Leyland can count on three starting pitchers:

• Justin Verlander, who is back throwing the Cy Young-caliber pitches he showed during 2006 and '07;

• Edwin Jackson, whose acquisition in December might have been a season-saver for the Tigers; and

• Armando Galarraga, who should be steady in his second full season with Detroit.

That's it.

• Robertson is out with a sprained thumb and except for one outing, has not thrown the ball with command.

• Willis is fighting assorted issues.

• Rick Porcello, who looked as if he would be a savior, missed a week with a cut finger and had trouble Thursday controlling his breaking pitches.

Without quality starts from the brunt of his rotation, this team will be lucky to finish .500.

Factor in a bullpen that could have its issues, and .500 looks like fantasy.

The positives

The flip side is that this team still could win an American League Central Division that isn't likely to be owned by any single club.

The reasons are these:

• Starting pitching: Ironically, the same Achilles' heel that threatens to sabotage Leyland's crew could be its strength.

It depends on Bonderman. If the doctors are correct and his return to full velocity is simply a matter of getting the rust out, then he can stabilize the middle of the rotation and win 14 or 15.

Another reason the rotation can survive is Zach Miner, who can be used as a starter. He should provide on most days six innings of reliable work that keeps Leyland's team in a game.

Another potential plus is Porcello, who hasn't done anything to earn a trip to the minors. Even during Thursday's game, when he got into trouble early because of nerves and a balky breaking ball, he allowed one run.

• The bullpen: Fernando Rodney should be fine, even if he has been erratic this spring.

Brandon Lyon is Todd Jones without the drama.

Joel Zumaya, the torch-carrier for Detroit's back-end bullpen corps, is likely to make it back, but perhaps not soon, because of his lingering issues.

Ryan Perry, a former No. 1 pick, however, looks like a replica of the 2006 Zumaya. Do not underestimate his ability to weld things together while Zumaya is healing.

Options plentiful

Granted, a lot of things that are presently wrong must go right if the Tigers are to eradicate that "confusion" of which Leyland spoke Friday.

But something Brandon Inge said Friday made abundant sense. He spoke about Leyland's pitching options -- about the sheer number of choices available.

"It's almost a better problem to have," Inge said. "There's a battle for a couple of spots because there are good arms out there. It could be worse. It could be that we had nothing and we need to be in the market."

What the Tigers are in the market for is health. But, as with a nation and its economic woes, right now it's tough out there.

You can reach Lynn Henning at (313) 222-2472 lynn.henning@ detnews.com.