Daniel Howes

Cobo, auto show futures look dim

Don't weep for the future of Cobo Center and the North American International Auto Show -- because they both may not have one.

The demise of the plan to begin $288 million in renovations and deliver the city-owned asset to a regional authority is less important than what this latest blowup signifies for southeast Michigan's business-political complex and whether there'll be much cause to host an auto show at all.

First, the show. The Detroit Auto Dealers Association is committed to holding the event at Cobo next year, but could move to a new venue for 2011 -- provided organizers can find one in, say, Oakland County. Only the Rock Financial Showplace appears viable, a ranking county official says, so long as 500,000 square feet is added.

But why? For at least the past five years, show organizers and local politicians have been politicking -- unsuccessfully -- over the need to expand Cobo to "keep" the auto show and its estimated $500 million in annual economic activity. Now, in a fitting twist, it may be too late.

The global industry is changing, with more players souring on Detroit as a must-do venue in North America. More than one hometown company may not survive this brutal recession, and even if they do, several of their brands -- Saturn, Saab, Hummer, Dodge cars -- may not, decreasing demand for space. And the time-honored auto show looks increasingly as quaint as a Model T.

"This, for the past three years at least, has been a one-event expansion amid an auto industry implosion," says Robert Daddow, Oakland County's deputy county executive for special projects. Will you pursue the show? "If it doesn't make sense, we're not going to support it."

Translation: If the numbers add up, sure. But trends in the industry and Detroit's damaged brand are likely to make it a tough sell, especially when the justification to try to host the show needs to be weighed against the economic fallout from the possible bankruptcies of General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC or both.

The symbolism of this failure is important, too, for what it says about the chronic dysfunction of the region's political and business leadership. Too many politicians, especially those on the Detroit City Council, can be bullying, unpredictable practitioners of petty politics.

Business leaders too often choose timidity over confrontation because the cost of confrontation generally is too high. The net-effect of the mutual dysfunction is that the uncertain future of the auto show, mostly engineered to achieve tactical political advantage, undermines prospects for new downtown hotels and the rationale for light rail on Woodward.

Either way, business loses. And so does Detroit.

"Over time, the business community does get to the point of, 'Do I want to put myself out there? Will it make any difference?' " says Richard Blouse, president of the Detroit Regional Chamber. Conflict has made the "business community paranoid to a fault."

Understandably so, as recent history attests. A ballot initiative earlier this decade to empower the mayor to oversee Detroit Public Schools -- now under state financial control -- was backed by key business groups whose leaders were accused of being racist. The measure failed, and the schools still are failing.

A plan to create a regional transit plan, backed by political and business groups, was derailed after a union lawsuit successfully blocked the effort. And the Cobo deal was scuttled because a faction of council, led by President Monica Conyers, demanded (in an election year) the city receive more than $20 million for its interest and, second, that Detroiters be given preference in Cobo contracting.

This deal should stay dead at least until the November elections are past, a new mayor is chosen and a new council is seated, which I suspect was a major reason Conyers & Co. chose to take a stand on Cobo. Doing so scores points with the Detroit constituencies most likely to reward such behavior at the polls, as is their right.

Whether Cobo as home to the auto show will be revived is another question.

So many assumptions are changing, some daily, with the roiling fortunes of Detroit's automakers, slumping industry sales and the declining utility of 20th-century auto shows in a 21st-century world.

In some future puzzle, the question will seek another Detroit word for lost opportunity. "Cobo" will be the answer, and the truth is there will be plenty of blame to go around.

Daniel Howes' column runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. (313) 222-2106 dchowes@detnews.com