Mike O'Hara: Week 8 NFL picks

Basic football is Lions' formula for beating Rams

Jon Jansen's mindset in his position switch on the Lions' offensive line should fit every player at every position on a team desperate to establish a winning identity.

Jansen, a starting right tackle for most of his previous 10 pro seasons -- all with the Washington Redskins -- will start at left guard against the Rams at Ford Field on Sunday.

It's a new position, but the same objective for Jansen.

"It's different in a lot of ways -- just getting in my stance," Jansen said after a practice this week. "But as soon as you hit somebody, you've just got to play football.

"When the ball is snapped -- play football."

It is simple and to the point -- play football. Block, tackle, limit mistakes, avoid penalties.

Do the basics, and it should add up to the Lions beating the Rams, the NFL's worst team.

It is not a marquee game -- the Lions are 1-5, the Rams a league-worst 0-7 with 17 straight losses -- but one the Lions must win to generate momentum for the rest of the season.

The Lions have finished a brutal first six games against opponents with a combined record of 26-13.

After the Rams, the Lions play the Seahawks and Vikings on the road, then return home with games against the Browns and Packers. Winning two or three of these next five games would show real improvement.

It has to start Sunday.

Here are this week's NFL picks against the spread.

Last week's record was a stunning 9-3-1.

Rams (0-7) at Lions (1-5): This game is about the Lions, not the Rams. The Lions are getting healthy, with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson back on offense. Linemen Sammie Hill and Dewayne White are the key returnees on defense.

Make no mistake: The Lions know this is a winnable game.

During the bye week, center Dominic Raiola reflected on the first half of the 2007 season, when the Lions were 6-2.

"That felt so good," Raiola said.

Line: Lions by 4.5

Pick: Pawn the silver. Refinance the snowblower. Raid the cookie jar. This one's a lock. Lions 30, Rams 15

Vikings (6-1) at Packers (4-2): Brett Favre returns to Green Bay after leaving last year in a trade to the Jets. That's the drama. A win puts the Packers within a half-game of first in the North. That's what's at stake.

Favre has talked about the emotion -- and lack of it -- in his return, but is focusing on the game.

"The way they're playing, the way we're playing, both teams are vying, obviously, for the No. 1 spot," he told reporters. "That's the only thing that's important, to be quite honest with you."

To be quite honest, nobody believes that.

Home field advantage belongs to these Packers, not Favre.

Line: Packers by 3

Pick: Packers

Browns (0-6) at Bears (3-3): Browns QB Derek Anderson has been horrid:two completions in the Browns' only win (6-3 at Buffalo), a 43.8-percent completion rate and passer rating of 40.8 for the season. The Bears are coming off an embarrassing meltdown against the Bengals, and their defense is leaking.

Line: Bears by 13

Pick: Bears win, but Browns cover

Broncos (6-0) at Ravens (3-3): The Broncos are plus-seven in turnovers and second overall on defense. That's been the Ravens' winning formula, but their defense is older and a half-step slower. They can pull it together for one game.

Line: Ravens by 3.5

Pick: Ravens

Texans (4-3) at Bills (3-4): The Texans' rushing defense has tightened up -- from 205 yards a game in the first three games to 48.5 the last four. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets another start at QB for the Bills. The Texans have never had a winning record after eight games.

Line: Texans by 3.5

Pick: Texans

Seahawks (2-4) at Cowboys (4-2): Cowboys WR Miles Austin has been a shooting star in the last two games. Meanwhile, former Lion Roy Williams has been star-crossed, or in another galaxy. Austin has 16 catches, 421 yards and four TDs in the last two games. To reporters, Williams characterized his miserable one-catch performance last week this way: "I don't know where I was. I guess I was with Martellus (Bennett) on Jupiter or something." Earth to Roy: permission to land.

Line: Cowboys by 9.5

Pick: Cowboys

49ers (3-3) at Colts (6-0): Niners QB Alex Smith won the starting job after coming off the bench to throw three TD passes in last week's loss at Houston. The Colts expect safety Bob Sanders to get more playing time in his second game back from knee surgery.

Line: Colts by 12

Pick: Colts to win, 49ers to cover

Dolphins (2-4) at Jets (4-3): The Jets have gone over the 300-yard rushing mark in the last two games -- a loss to Buffalo, a win at Oakland. Dolphins QB Chad Henne threw two TD passes in his first start to beat the Jets three weeks ago. Henne struggled in last week's home loss to the Saints and isn't likely to fare better at the Meadowlands.

Line: Jets by 3.5

Pick: Jets

Raiders (2-5) at Chargers (3-3): The Chargers were 3-3 last year, skidded to 4-8, and won the AFC West at 8-8 by winning their last four. This is a tap-in Sunday, but the next three are at the Giants and Broncos, with a home game against the Eagles in between. They'd better get this one -- and will.

Line: Chargers by 16.5

Pick: Chargers

Jaguars (3-3) at Titans (0-6): Kerry Collins goes to the bench with Vince Young starting at QB for the Titans. This is Young's second start in two years. His career record is 18-11. It's too late for anyone to save the Titans' season, but Young might save his career. Does anyone in Nashville really care?

Line: Titans by 3

Pick: Jaguars

Panthers (2-4) at Cardinals (4-2): Panthers coach John Fox is sticking with QB Jake Delhomme. Backups Matt Moore and A.J. Feeley must be horrible. Arizona's defense ranks first against the rush. That puts the Panthers' game plan on Delhomme's arm -- which puts the game in Arizona's win column.

Line: Cardinals by 10

Pick: Cardinals

Giants (5-2) at Eagles (4-2): Player for player, the Giants probably have the best roster in the league. They haven't played like it in losing two straight. It's a pass-rush contest. The Eagles' scheme has made them slightly more productive than the Giants -- but with more risk involved. They've got to get to Eli Manning without exposing their cornerbacks.

Line: Even

Pick: Giants

Falcons (4-2) at Saints (6-0), Monday night: The Falcons' offensive line gave up four sacks in last week's loss to the Cowboys, snapping a four-game streak without a sack. Saints QB Drew Brees' cast of playmakers -- Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Pierre Brown, Reggie Bush -- is too much for the Falcons.

Line: Saints by 10

Pick: Saints

Instant Repays: Lions, Jets, Cowboys, Ravens

Best Bet: Cowboys

Former Detroit News sports reporter Mike O'Hara can be reached at mike@mikeoharasports.com.