Mike O'Hara: Week 9 NFL picks

Lions are winners in Peterson trade, if not the game

The Lions go to Seattle this weekend with one victory assured.

That doesn't mean they'll beat the Seahawks at Qwest Field. The Lions are 10-point underdogs for good reasons -- one of them being their 15-game road losing streak.

But general manager Martin Mayhew's offseason trade with the Seahawks that brought strong-side linebacker Julian Peterson to Detroit was a clear-cut win for the Lions.

The Lions gave up defensive tackle Cory Redding and a fifth-round draft pick for Peterson.

Peterson's play has been one of the bright lights in another dim Lions season. Rapid development of some rookies -- quarterback Matthew Stafford, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker DeAndre Levy -- is another.

Despite what the critics say -- and lack of patience with the Lions is understandable -- tight end Brandon Pettigrew will join that group in time.

Peterson has been an effective run defender and pass-rush presence for the Lions. In seven games, Peterson has 3.5 sacks, which puts him on pace for eight to10 sacks for the season.

Redding has been a role player in Seattle's defensive-line rotation, with three starts in seven games, 10 tackles and no sacks. That puts Redding on pace to qualify as a disappointment. Since his eight-sack season in 2006, Redding has four sacks in 36 games.

The Seahawks traded the fifth-round pick from the Lions to the Ravens, who used it to take TCU linebacker Jason Phillips, now on injured reserve.

Here are this week's picks against the spread. Last week's record was a horrendous 4-9.

• Lions (1-6) at Seahawks (2-5): Calvin Johnson returns for the Lions. No receiver means more to his team than Johnson does to the Lions. He changes the way defenses attack the Lions -- and how the Lions attack defenses.

When the Seahawks win, they win big at home -- 28-0 over the Rams in their opener, and 41-0 over Jacksonville in Game 5. Their point differential is plus-69 for the two wins, and minus-81 for the five losses.

The Lions didn't have a sack in last week's loss to the Rams. They should get pressure on Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck, who gets limited practice time because of a rib injury.

The running game is vital for the Lions on both sides. They have only three runs of 20 yards or longer but have allowed 10 run of more than 20 yards.

Seahawks coach Jim Mora's rant after last week's loss to Dallas would have more meaning and sticking power if he were a typical first-year head coach. He isn't. He was Seattle's assistant head coach under Mike Holmgren the last two years. His voice, and message, have been heard before.

Betting favorite: Seahawks by 10.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Lions 14.

• Chiefs (1-6) at Jaguars (3-4): Chiefs RB Larry Johnson is sitting out the game as part of a club-mandated suspension. The Chiefs are 0-12 in games without Johnson. Make it 0-13.

Betting favorite: Jaguars by 6.5.

Pick: Jaguars.

• Ravens (4-3) at Bengals (5-2): The Bengals haven't finished above .500 since 2005, when they won the AFC North at 11-5. This is a turn-around season for the Bengals, but the Ravens want to turn around the result of their 17-14 loss to the Bengals in Game 5. They've altered their defensive scheme to play less man-to-man coverage. The Ravens have given up four rushing TDs -- as many as they allowed all of last season.

Betting favorite: Ravens by 3.

Pick: Bengals.

• Texans (5-3) at Colts (7-0): The Texans are 5-3 for the first time in franchise history. With last year's 5-1 finish, they're 10-4 in the last 14 games. QB Matt Schaub's arm (16 TD passes) covers for a weak running game. Indy's pass defense is hurt by the loss of cornerback Marlin Jackson.

Betting favorite: Colts by 9.

Pick: Colts to win, Texans to cover.

• Redskins (2-5) at Falcons (4-3): The Falcons' defense, ranked 29th, gets a breather this week against the weak Redskins. Monday night's loss at New Orleans stung. RB Michael Turner has struggled but ran for 151 yards against the Saints. The Redskins are coming off a bye, and owner Dan Snyder has apologized to the fans. Keep the speech handy, Mr. Snyder. It's not getting any better. "I've got to play better," says Falcons QB Matt Ryan, with seven interceptions in the last three games.

Betting favorite: Falcons by 10.

Pick: Falcons.

• Packers (4-3) at Bucs (0-7): First-round pick Josh Freeman makes his first start at QB for the Bucs. He's their third starter this year -- and the season isn't half over. Panic? Absolutely. The Bucs have balance on offense and defense. They rank 28th on both.

Betting favorite: Packers by 9.5.

Pick: Packers.

• Cardinals (4-3) at Bears (4-3): The Cardinals aren't homers or domers this year. They're 1-3 under the roof at home and 3-0 on the road. The Bears need a decisive win. Four days after Sunday's game, they play a Thursday-night game at San Francisco.

Betting favorite: Bears by 3.

Pick: Bears.

• Dolphins (3-4) at Patriots (5-2): The Dolphins have had strange games. They lost to Indy, despite having the ball for 45 minutes. They were out-gained 378 yards to 104 but beat the Jets at the Meadowlands last week. So much for stats telling the whole story. The Patriots are back from a bye, and coach Bill Belichick is tough to beat with an extra week to prepare.

• Betting favorite: Patriots by 10.5.

• Pick: Patriots.

• Panthers (3-4) at Saints (7-0): A Saints letdown would be understandable. But the Panthers give them fuel for the fire. Panthers coach John Fox is 7-0 vs. the Saints on the road -- six wins at the Superdome, one in Baton Rouge in 2005. Carolina is down to its last gasp for the season.

Betting favorite: Saints by 10.5.

Pick: Saints to win, Panthers to cover.

• Titans (1-6) at 49ers (3-4): Titans center Kevin Maawe offers no apologies for a Sports Illustrated poll of players that ranked him among the league's 10 dirtiest players. Steelers WR Hines Ward was No. 1.

"I play the game hard," Maawe told reporters. "I play to the whistle and sometimes 'til the echo of the whistle." That's tooting your own horn.

Betting favorite: 49ers by 4.5.

Pick: 49ers.

• Chargers (4-3) at Giants (5-3): The focus is on the QBs of the 2004 draft -- the Giants Eli Manning and Chargers QB Philip Rivers. Giants coach Tom Coughlin told his players it's a one-game season -- with a three-game losing streak.

"Leaders are lifters," he told reporters this week.

A loss sinks the Giants in the NFC East.

Betting favorite: Giants by 4.5.

Pick: Giants.

Sunday Night

• Cowboys (5-2) at Eagles (5-2): The Eagles are proof that teams can keep winning without standing pat. They've turned the roster over by more than 50 percent the last two years and have 18 new players this year. Of the 53 players, 27 are 26 or younger. Young players -- such as DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy -- are making an impact. Cowboys QB Tony Romo has quieted some of the doubters -- except for Roy Williams -- for a while.

Betting favorite: Eagles by 3.

Pick: Eagles.

Monday Night

• Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1): Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is the target. He's been sacked 20 times, tied for fourth-most in the league. The Broncos' defense lead the league in yards allowed (266.7 per game) and is tied for second with 23 sacks. The Steelers are right behind with 21. Roethlisberger vs. Broncos QB Kyle Orton should be a big edge for the Steelers -- unless the rush stops Big Ben.

Betting favorite : Steelers by 3.

Pick: Steelers.

Instant Repays: Jaguars, Texans, Packers, Bears.

Best Bet: Bears.