State risks losing House seat, funds if Census count isn't accurate

Catherine Jun / The Detroit News

There's a lot at stake for Michigan in the 2010 census: federal funding for social programs and the potential loss of at least one U.S. House seat.

Yet the challenges to get an accurate count are greater now than ever, for the state and particularly Detroit, experts say.

In a region hit by foreclosures, lack of funding for the count and immigrant populations wary of the government in the post 9/11 climate, some experts are predicting a low percentage of forms will be returned this spring.

Local census offices have ramped up public awareness campaigns, reaching out to ethnic communities by hiring bilingual speakers.

"We have really redoubled our efforts on the ground," said Kim Hunter, spokesman for the Detroit Census Bureau, adding that local offices have hired Arabic- and Spanish-speaking staff to work with local organizations in Dearborn and southwest Detroit.

"It's more than we had in 2000," Hunter said.

With the state's population loss, which has already affected school funding and state tax revenues, federal funding losses could be devastating.

"It's about the finances," said Kurt Metzger, director of the Detroit Area Community Information System. "It's critical anytime but probably this time more than ever because Michigan has been suffering such losses."

The overwhelming number of foreclosed properties makes it potentially difficult to count those who are now homeless or have moved in with relatives or friends, Hunter said.

Since December 2007, census staff has been updating its list of residential addresses and has included homes, even vacant ones, as long as they are "closed to the elements," with windows and doors in place.

"A lot of these places are becoming unoccupied as we speak," Hunter said. He predicted thousands of temporary workers may have to visit each home to verify occupancy after April 1, the deadline for mail-in responses.

Detroit, with the worst foreclosure rate in the state, faces additional challenges.

In the 2000 census, the city spent $300,000 for thousands of yards signs and bumper stickers to encourage residents to mail back forms. Despite such efforts, 1.5 percent of Detroit's 965,860 residents went uncounted, higher than the average undercount for 11 major cities, according to a study released last month by Pew Charitable Trusts. After legal challenges, the Census Bureau declared the city had a population of 1,027,974.

With Detroit facing a $300 million deficit, it has no plans to spend money on census efforts.

"Obviously, our resources are precious," said Edward Cardenas, spokesman for Mayor Dave Bing's office. Instead, the city is relying heavily on partnerships with local senior and social service agencies to get the message out.

For each person not counted in Michigan, the state loses $10,000 to other states over the course of 10 years, said Lt. Gov. John Cherry. That's money that goes toward health care, transportation, education, environment, housing and social services.

In 2000, Michigan's census count resulted in a loss of a House seat, bringing its total to 15 out of the 435 seats in the chamber. "You're basically looking at, in all likelihood, losing a seat," said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a political consulting firm that specializes in the census and reapportionment.

State demographers say the loss could have been avoided if the state's seasonal residents, or "snowbirds," had been properly counted in Michigan instead of where they vacation. That also amounted to an annual loss of roughly $200 million, said Cherry, who is head of Michigan's Complete Count Committee.